Pens vs Refs - Part 6 - Sidney Crosby 05-06

In 2006-07, Sidney Crosby's penalty minutes dropped big time. They were at 110 for 05-06, and just 60 in 06-07. You'd think this would mean most referees would drop in the average number of minor penalties called on Sid in 06-07 during games they were involved in. You'd be correct in that assumption.

What IS interesting, not to mention unexpected, is that some referees remained remarkably consistent in the high average of minor penalties called on Sidney. There are four referees in particular (Spada, Hasenfratz, Walsh and O'Halloran) who have refereed games where Crosby has been heavily penalized.

Those four accounted for 21% of Sidney's penalties in 05-06 while having a part in 15% of his games. For 06-07, they accounted for 28% while participating in just 12% of games.

Does this mean there's a grudge? Does this mean it's a complete coincidence? I'm guessing it some of both. I think that referees are human, and would be hard-pressed to put aside personal likes and dislikes. It certainly seems that when Sid's penalties dropped sharply in 06-07 that these four would rise to the top in their consistency. On the flip side, someone had to be the top and be the most consistent. It could just be chance.

At the very least, when you're watching the Pens this year and one of these four guys is wearing the striped shirt, pay a little more attention to see how they interact with Sid.

The chart shows the ref, the number of games in 06-07, the average number of minor penalties in 06-07, the same data for 05-06 and the percentage change from 05-06 to 06-07. I didn't include anyone that didn't handle at least 4 games in 06-07.

Here's the chart so you can see for yourself:

Ref	06 Games	06 Avg	05 Games	05 Avg	% change
Craig Spada	5	1	10	0.7	43%
Mike Hasenfratz	4	1	3	1.33	-25%
Ian Walsh	5	0.8	6	1	-20%
Dan O'Halloran	5	0.8	5	1.2	-33%
Brad Watson	7	0.71	6	0.5	43%
Tom Kowal	6	0.67	5	0.2	233%
Marc Joannette	5	0.6	0	0
Greg Kimmerly	5	0.6	7	0.43	40%
Stephane Auger	4	0.5	4	1.75	-71%
Dean Warren	8	0.5	6	0.33	50%
Gord Dwyer	5	0.4	2	0.5	-20%
Dave Jackson	8	0.38	4	0.5	-25%
Eric Furlatt	6	0.33	5	0.2	67%
Rob Shick	4	0.25	6	1	-75%
Dan Marouelli	4	0.25	2	0.5	-50%
Tim Peel	4	0.25	2	1	-75%
Paul Devorski	5	0.2	6	1	-80%
Mike Leggo	5	0.2	2	1	-80%
Dan O'Rourke	5	0.2	5	1.6	-88%
Don Koharski	5	0.2	7	0.29	-30%
Don Van Massenhoven	5	0.2	6	0.67	-70%
Kelly Sutherland	5	0.2	2	0.5	-60%
Chris Lee	6	0.17	5	0.8	-79%
Chris Rooney	7	0.14	3	2	-93%
Kevin Pollock	4	0	6	1	-100%
Kerry Fraser	4	0	5	0.6	-100%
Wes McCauley	5	0	9	0.44	-100%
Brad Meier	4	0	0	0	0%
Rob Martell	5	0	0	0	0%

Here are the previous parts in the series:
Introduction
Part 1 - PIM
Part 2 - PIM Difference
Part 3 - PIM vs Opponent PIM
Part 4 - Offense
Part 5 - Sidney Crosby

Pens vs Refs - Part 5 - Sidney Crosby

I know I said there would be a post on power play opportunities, but I wanted to quickly shift gears - I'll get back to power plays later in the week. I thought today we could take a look at penalties called on a specific player, and who better to start with than Sid?

First off, let me reiterate that there is no way to definitively state which referee made each call. The NHL doesn't seem to publish that data (boy, would I love it if they did). All we can do is say that in games that had Dave Jackson, for instance, as one of the two referees, Sid received three minor penalties.

The chart today will show the ref, the number of times said ref saw the Penguins, and the number of penalties that Sid received, along with the average number of minor penalties. A few quick notes:

• Sid only had 60 PIM in 06-07. The numbers for the chart are doubled, because each penalty is linked to two distinct referees.
  
• Crosby didn't receive anything other than minor penalties in 06-07, so all are just two minutes.
• Sid played in 79 games, so the results will be off very slightly for the averages. I don't think this is significant - just a few guys will have a lower average than they might otherwise.
• 29 referees saw the Pens (and Crosby) 4 times or more. I'm limiting the results to those guys - any fewer than that and the results aren't really significant.
• Guys that were especially easy on Sid include Pollock, Martell, McCauley, Meier, Fraser, Rooney and Lee.
• Guys that are heavily associated with Crosby penalties include Hasenfratz, Spada, O'Halloran and Walsh.

Take a look at the chart. Tomorrow I'll contrast these numbers to the PIM from 05-06 to see if there's any disparity between the two seasons.

Ref	Games with Pens	Minors on Sid	Minors per Game
Mike Hasenfratz	4	4	1
Craig Spada	5	5	1
Dan O'Halloran	5	4	0.8
Ian Walsh	5	4	0.8
Brad Watson	7	5	0.71
Tom Kowal	6	4	0.67
Marc Joannette	5	3	0.6
Greg Kimmerly	5	3	0.6
Stephane Auger	4	2	0.5
Dean Warren	8	4	0.5
Gord Dwyer	5	2	0.4
Dave Jackson	8	3	0.38
Eric Furlatt	6	2	0.33
Rob Shick	4	1	0.25
Dan Marouelli	4	1	0.25
Tim Peel	4	1	0.25
Don Van Massenhoven	5	1	0.2
Paul Devorski	5	1	0.2
Kelly Sutherland	5	1	0.2
Dan O'Rourke	5	1	0.2
Mike Leggo	5	1	0.2
Don Koharski	5	1	0.2
Chris Lee	6	1	0.17
Chris Rooney	7	1	0.14
Kevin Pollock	4	0	0
Rob Martell	5	0	0
Wes McCauley	5	0	0
Brad Meier	4	0	0
Kerry Fraser	4	0	0

Here are the previous parts in the series:
Introduction
Part 1 - PIM
Part 2 - PIM Difference
Part 3 - PIM vs Opponent PIM
Part 4 - Offense

Pens vs Refs - Part 4 - Offense

Today we take a look at how the scoring went in games with certain referees. The chart is self-explanatory - I'm listing the ref, the number of games, the average goals for and the average goals against.

There really isn't much consistency to the results. It doesn't seem to matter how many games the refs worked, or how many PIM were called on the Pens or the opposition in those games - it doesn't correlate to goals or shots.

This is going to require some more digging. In the next part (on Monday) I'll take a look at power plays (instead of PIM) and wins (instead of scoring).

In the meantime, enjoy the table - it's neat to see the data! There are some pretty wide swings in offense (for refs with at least 4 games), from 5.25 goals in Kerry Fraser games to 1.75 in Mike Hasenfratz games.

Referee	Games	Avg Goals For	Avg Goals Against
Dean Warren	8	3.88	3.13
Dave Jackson	8	2.5	3.5
Brad Watson	7	3.57	2.43
Chris Rooney	7	4.14	2.57
Chris Lee	6	3.83	3.5
Tom Kowal	6	3.17	2
Eric Furlatt	6	2.5	2.83
Rob Martell	5	4	3.4
Paul Devorski	5	1.8	3.8
Dan O'Rourke	5	3.2	3.6
Marc Joannette	5	3.2	1.8
Wes McCauley	5	3.6	3
Dan O'Halloran	5	3.8	3.2
Mike Leggo	5	2.4	3.2
Ian Walsh	5	4.2	2.6
Greg Kimmerly	5	3.8	3
Don Koharski	5	4	3.6
Kelly Sutherland	5	3.2	3
Craig Spada	5	4.4	3.4
Don Van Massenhoven	5	2.8	2.4
Gord Dwyer	5	3.8	2.4
Brad Meier	4	2.25	4
Stephane Auger	4	2.75	2.75
Tim Peel	4	3	4.25
Rob Shick	4	4	3
Dan Marouelli	4	2.5	2.5
Mike Hasenfratz	4	1.75	1.75
Kevin Pollock	4	3.5	1.25
Kerry Fraser	4	5.25	3.25
Bill McCreary	3	3.33	3.67
Justin St. Pierre	3	2.67	3.67
Brian Pochmara	2	5	5
Dennis LaRue	2	5	3
Steve Kozari	1	1	2
Dean Morton	1	3	4
Mick McGeough	1	4	3
Francois St. Laurent	1	5	4

Here are the previous parts in the series:
Introduction
Part 1 - PIM
Part 2 - PIM Difference
Part 3 - PIM vs Opponent PIM

Pens vs Refs - Part 3 - PIM vs Opponent PIM

Today we'll take a look at how the refs treated the Pens versus how they treated their opponents. The chart is quite simple - it shows the ref, the average PIM called on the Pens, the average PIM called on their opponents in those games and the percentage change from the opponent's PIM to the Pens PIM. It's sorted by the number of times each guy saw the Pens - Dave Jackson did 8 games, while Steve Kozari did just one. The results are enlightening - here are a few highlights:

• Of the guys that saw the Pens 6 times or more (there are 7 of them), only one was associated with games that had more PIM against the opposition, on average.
• The biggest apparent bias (in guys who saw the team 4 times or more) was held by Dan O'Rourke, who was in games where the Pens received 60% more penalty minutes than the opposition.
• On the flip side, Rob Schick seemingly loved the Pens, calling only 70% of the PIM on them that he called on the opposition.
• 25 of 37 refs had a higher average for the Pens than they did for the other team.
• Eliminating fighting penalties here wouldn't do too much, as there is usually 5 minutes assessed to each team.

Take a look at the chart - it's pretty intersting.

Referee	Avg PIM on Pens	Avg PIM on opponent	% Change
Dave Jackson	19.5	14.88	131.09%
Dean Warren	17.75	14	126.79%
Brad Watson	19.43	19.14	101.49%
Chris Rooney	25.14	17.29	145.45%
Tom Kowal	17.33	14.17	122.35%
Eric Furlatt	20.33	18.67	108.93%
Chris Lee	11.33	11.67	97.14%
Don Van Massenhoven	10.4	12.8	81.25%
Gord Dwyer	16.2	14.6	110.96%
Rob Martell	15.4	10	154.00%
Dan O'Rourke	15	9.4	159.57%
Wes McCauley	8.4	10	84.00%
Dan O'Halloran	8.2	12.6	65.08%
Marc Joannette	14.4	16.8	85.71%
Mike Leggo	12.8	11.2	114.29%
Paul Devorski	13.2	10.4	126.92%
Ian Walsh	17.2	16.8	102.38%
Greg Kimmerly	18.8	20	94.00%
Don Koharski	20	14.2	140.85%
Kelly Sutherland	23.2	15.6	148.72%
Craig Spada	16.6	23.8	69.75%
Dan Marouelli	16.25	11.25	144.44%
Kerry Fraser	13.75	8.25	166.67%
Tim Peel	13.75	8.25	166.67%
Rob Shick	19.25	27	71.30%
Kevin Pollock	11.75	9.75	120.51%
Mike Hasenfratz	15.25	12.75	119.61%
Brad Meier	17	14	121.43%
Stephane Auger	17.75	19.25	92.21%
Justin St. Pierre	14.33	17	84.31%
Bill McCreary	14.67	18	81.48%
Brian Pochmara	15	13	115.38%
Dennis LaRue	43	27.5	156.36%
Dean Morton	8	10	80.00%
Francois St. Laurent	39	16	243.75%
Mick McGeough	16	12	133.33%
Steve Kozari	14	12	116.67%

Here are the previous parts in the series:
Introduction
Part 1 - PIM
Part 2 - PIM Difference

Pens vs Refs - Part 2 - PIM difference

Today we'll see how the PIM the ref is associated with in a Penguins game differs from their average PIM over the entire season.

Tomorrow will be PIM called on the opposition by the refs.

So what jumps out from the data?

• Most of the refs are well above their overall averages when they blow the whistle against the Pens. This would be interesting to see how it works out in terms of minor penalties. In other words, if we eliminate fighting and misconduct penalties, would the results still be the same?
• There is a small group of refs that saw the Pens 5 or more times that are well BELOW their averages in PIM. They are: Chris Lee, Don Van Massenhoven, Wes McCauley and Dan O'Halloran. If you see them out there for a Pens game, things might be good.
• It would be neat to see what the Pens record is in each of these games. Remember that we saw that fewer PIM lead to more scoring for the NHL as a whole. With how good the Pens power play was last year, I'm not sure if that will be the case. I'll have to check that out in a later article.

For the chart, we'll split out home and road games. The chart shows the ref, their associated PIM when the Pens are at home and on the road.

Here's the data:

Referee	Games	Avg PIM vs Pens	Home Pens PIM	Road Pens PIM	Home NHL PIM	Road NHL PIM
Dennis LaRue	2	43	74	12	16.52	15.46
Francois St. Laurent	1	39	39	0	15.19	13.63
Chris Rooney	7	25.14	28.4	17	16.93	14.37
Kelly Sutherland	5	23.2	15.67	34.5	13.37	13.04
Eric Furlatt	6	20.33	21.25	18.5	15.15	13.26
Don Koharski	5	20	26.67	10	15.37	14.05
Dave Jackson	8	19.5	18.75	20.25	15.9	15.88
Brad Watson	7	19.43	19.17	21	15.42	14.23
Rob Shick	4	19.25	0	19.25	14.29	11.99
Greg Kimmerly	5	18.8	22.67	13	12.59	12.48
Dean Warren	8	17.75	19.5	17.17	13.57	12.63
Stephane Auger	4	17.75	20.33	10	13.86	12.81
Tom Kowal	6	17.33	12	20	14.3	15.01
Ian Walsh	5	17.2	11	21.33	15.27	13.74
Brad Meier	4	17	10	19.33	15.54	14.59
Craig Spada	5	16.6	23	15	15.79	14.45
Dan Marouelli	4	16.25	18.5	14	13.66	11.93
Gord Dwyer	5	16.2	6	23	14.15	14.79
Mick McGeough	1	16	16	0	14.99	13.64
Rob Martell	5	15.4	0	15.4	13.75	12.15
Mike Hasenfratz	4	15.25	17.5	13	15.93	13.73
Dan O'Rourke	5	15	19.67	8	14.24	14.42
Brian Pochmara	2	15	0	15	14.7	14.9
Bill McCreary	3	14.67	12	16	14.34	11.93
Marc Joannette	5	14.4	15.5	10	13.12	12.34
Justin St. Pierre	3	14.33	14	14.5	13.74	13.07
Steve Kozari	1	14	14	0	15.73	16.62
Tim Peel	4	13.75	16	13	12.64	11.6
Kerry Fraser	4	13.75	20	11.67	13.07	12.37
Paul Devorski	5	13.2	13.2	0	12.05	12.58
Mike Leggo	5	12.8	13.75	9	12.03	11.2
Kevin Pollock	4	11.75	10	12.33	13.41	13.41
Chris Lee	6	11.33	10.5	13	15.56	14.64
Don Van Massenhoven	5	10.4	8.5	11.67	14.55	13.28
Wes McCauley	5	8.4	7	9.33	11.85	11.23
Dan O'Halloran	5	8.2	6.33	11	13.42	13.36
Dean Morton	1	8	8	0	13.44	11.44

Here are the previous parts in the series:
Introduction
Part 1 - PIM

Pens vs Refs - Part 1 - PIM

Today marks the beginning of a new series on some box score data I put together. I'm trying to bring a different approach to looking at the stats by combining things in different ways.

This series is called "Pens vs Refs" and the general idea is to take a look at how different referees treat the Penguins as best I can. A few quick caveats, as usual when dealing with data about referees:

1. There are two referees at each game, and it's impossible to tell which referee made the penalty call. Any average data is unable to be directly correlated to one individual referee. It's more indicative of a trend than a specific indictment.
   
2. The box score data, while I believe it to be accurate, could have errors.
3. All data in this series is from the 2006-2007 season, unless I specifically state otherwise.

For the first post, let's take a look at who the Pens saw as a referee during the 2006-2007 season, and how many PIM were associated with that ref, on average.

The Pens saw all 37 NHL referees during 2006-2007. They saw eight guys three times or less. All of the others had a good chance to get a feel for the Pens, as they saw them four times or more.

The Pens were more penalized than the average team. Overall, the league average was 14.28 PIM at home and 13.38 on the road. The Pens were at 17.46 at home and 15.85 on the road.

Before we get to the table, here are a few points of interest:

• Anyone with less than 4 games really isn't fair to judge.
• All it takes is one big game and the numbers are skewed. For example, Dennis LaRue and Chris Rooney worked the January 20th game at the Igloo against Toronto. The Pens were called for 74 minutes in penalties. Don't feel like that completely throws things off, however, as Rooney averaged 17 PIM (above average) against the Pens on the road.

referee	Games	Avg PIM	Home Games	Home Avg PIM	Road Games	Road Avg PIM
Dennis LaRue	2	43	1	74	1	12
Francois St. Laurent	1	39	1	39	0	0
Chris Rooney	7	25.14	5	28.4	2	17
Kelly Sutherland	5	23.2	3	15.67	2	34.5
Eric Furlatt	6	20.33	4	21.25	2	18.5
Don Koharski	5	20	3	26.67	2	10
Dave Jackson	8	19.5	4	18.75	4	20.25
Brad Watson	7	19.43	6	19.17	1	21
Rob Shick	4	19.25	0	0	4	19.25
Greg Kimmerly	5	18.8	3	22.67	2	13
Dean Warren	8	17.75	2	19.5	6	17.17
Stephane Auger	4	17.75	3	20.33	1	10
Tom Kowal	6	17.33	2	12	4	20
Ian Walsh	5	17.2	2	11	3	21.33
Brad Meier	4	17	1	10	3	19.33
Craig Spada	5	16.6	1	23	4	15
Dan Marouelli	4	16.25	2	18.5	2	14
Gord Dwyer	5	16.2	2	6	3	23
Mick McGeough	1	16	1	16	0	0
Rob Martell	5	15.4	0	0	5	15.4
Mike Hasenfratz	4	15.25	2	17.5	2	13
Dan O'Rourke	5	15	3	19.67	2	8
Brian Pochmara	2	15	0	0	2	15
Bill McCreary	3	14.67	1	12	2	16
Marc Joannette	5	14.4	4	15.5	1	10
Justin St. Pierre	3	14.33	1	14	2	14.5
Steve Kozari	1	14	1	14	0	0
Tim Peel	4	13.75	1	16	3	13
Kerry Fraser	4	13.75	1	20	3	11.67
Paul Devorski	5	13.2	5	13.2	0	0
Mike Leggo	5	12.8	4	13.75	1	9
Kevin Pollock	4	11.75	1	10	3	12.33
Chris Lee	6	11.33	4	10.5	2	13
Don Van Massenhoven	5	10.4	2	8.5	3	11.67
Wes McCauley	5	8.4	2	7	3	9.33
Dan O'Halloran	5	8.2	3	6.33	2	11
Dean Morton	1	8	1	8	0	0

Tomorrow we'll add in two interesting pieces of information to this chart:

1. How many PIM were called on the opposition in these games?
2. How does the PIM deviate from the ref's numbers as a whole?

Data Mining - New Series! Pens vs Refs

Since the last series was so much fun, I'm going to continue looking at some referee data. This time, it will be with respect to the Pens alone. Here is a brief list of what I'd like to analyze:

1. How many PIM is each ref associated with on average?
2. Any difference for home vs road?
3. Any difference when removing major penalties and misconducts?
4. Any difference in scoring with each ref?
5. Any interesting calls (meaning, are there any refs that seem to pick on certain players?)

I'm expecting we'll find that while some refs certainly hit the Pens with more PIM, none of them seem to target players in an obvious fashion. I haven't looked at individual player numbers yet, so I'm really just guessing.

The series will start on Tuesday (or Monday night, if I put the post up early).

Anything you'd like to see in it, just yell and I'll do it if I can.

The Referees - Part 8 - Shots

In the last part, we saw what looked like a correlation between fewer penalty minutes and more goals. In this part, we'll see if that holds up for shots, since total shots can be a better measure of the action and offense in a game in my opinion.

In this one, the case is even more solid. The refs in games with the fewest penalty minutes are usually in the games with more shots, and thus more offense. I'm not sure why this is the case. About the only thing I can think of is that shots on the power play are fewer and father between then shots in play at even strength. Anyone else have any ideas?

Here are a few fun facts:

• The average NHL game in 2006-2007 had 59.13 shots. 28.55 were taken by the home team and 30.57 by the road team.
• The top 9 refs in PIM per game are in the bottom half of shots per game. The top three are in the bottom six.

Here are the stats - I'm listing (much like yesterday) the ref, their PIM ranking and their shots per game.

Ref	PIM Rank	Shots Avg
Eric Furlatt	18	61.81
Brian Pochmara	10	61.8
Kevin Pollock	20	60.29
Dean Warren	27	59.96
Paul Devorski	34	59.95
Marc Joannette	30	59.86
Bill McCreary	26	59.75
Dan O'Halloran	22	59.66
Tim Peel	35	59.57
Gord Dwyer	14	59.48
Dean Morton	33	59.44
Dan O'Rourke	16	59.43
Mick McGeough	17	59.37
Don Van Massenhoven	19	59.35
Rob Shick	25	59.21
Wes McCauley	37	59.2
Rob Martell	28	59.19
Brad Watson	9	59.18
Chris Lee	6	59.16
Kerry Fraser	31	59.16
Don Koharski	11	59.08
Ian Walsh	13	59.04
Chris Rooney	4	58.96
Dan Marouelli	29	58.84
Justin St. Pierre	21	58.79
Craig Spada	5	58.66
Mike Leggo	36	58.65
Kelly Sutherland	24	58.6
Mike Hasenfratz	8	58.51
Greg Kimmerly	32	58.51
Steve Kozari	1	58.38
Dennis LaRue	2	58.34
Brad Meier	7	58.34
Francois St. Laurent	15	58.19
Dave Jackson	3	57.74
Stephane Auger	23	57.64
Tom Kowal	12	57.58

So this post marks the end of my first series on different ways of looking at the NHL statistical data. I've really enjoyed writing it. I hope you're enjoying it too. If you are, spread the word - I think many more people might enjoy seeing this stuff.

Over the weekend, I'll post the introduction to the next series. I'm not sure if I'll do another one on the referees, or if I'll take a look at some player data. I have a few ideas, so we'll see what happens.

Here are the previous parts in the series:
Introduction
Part 1 - High PIM
Part 2 - Low PIM
Part 3 - Home / Road Intro
Part 4 - Home PIM Rankings
Part 5 - Road PIM Rankings
Part 6 - PIM Spread
Part 7 - Goals